Taking into account the circumstances, such as a very weak corona year in 2021, the growth of the Chinese economy lags behind considerably at 6.3 percent. ‘With the lockdowns behind us, economists thought that the economy would grow much faster again,’ says BNR home economist Han de Jong. “But that didn’t happen.”
A growth of 6.3 percent may sound strong. And in a country like the Netherlands it would be. Still, the Chinese figure is disappointing. ‘Especially because it is compared to the second quarter of last year,’ says De Jong, ‘when the Chinese economy contracted.’
But even if the growth is compared to the previous quarter, it is anything but impressive. The world’s second economy is now 0.8 percent larger than a quarter earlier. That is also very little by Chinese standards.
Growing youth unemployment
Economists’ expectations were much higher. “After the lockdowns ended last year, everyone assumed that an explosion of growth would follow,” says De Jong. ‘Growth that was much higher than in previous years. But that didn’t happen.’
The economist is particularly concerned about the growing youth unemployment in the country. ‘For young people between the ages of 16 and 24, this has now risen to 21.3 percent. At the beginning of this year that was only 17 percent, and in 2021 it will be 13 percent. This is a growing problem and it also threatens to become a major social problem.
Positive and negative consequences for the Netherlands
For the Netherlands, the disappointing figures are a mixed bag, says De Jong. ‘Germany is a major exporter to China, and many Dutch companies are suppliers to those companies.’ So that way it trickles down to us. ‘On the other hand, the slower Chinese economy is leading to lower raw material prices on the global market,’ says De Jong. ‘That puts pressure on inflation for us, and that in turn is positive.’
