In the first Polling Guide after a turbulent political summer, New Social Contract (NSC) by Pieter Omtzigt is the largest party in one fell swoop. According to this weighted average of the seat polls by Ipsos/EenVandaag and I&O Research, Omtzigt’s newly founded party has 26 to 32 seats in parliament.
The only parties that come close to this are the VVD with 22 to 27 seats and the new PvdA/GroenLinks combination with 22 to 26 seats in the Chamber. This is followed at a great distance by the PVV with 12 to 16 seats and the BBB with 11 to 17 seats.
D66, CDA fall far back
According to political scientist Tom Louwerse, creator of the Peilingwijzer, it should be noted that there are still significant differences between the two research agencies. The most emphatic is that at PvdA/GroenLinks, which has 28 seats in the latest poll by I&O Research compared to 20 at Ipsos/Eenvandaag.
And where the first Omtzigts party polled a week and a half ago at 31 seats, there are now 27 at Ipsos/EenVandaag. “But the main line of course remains the same: New Social Contract is one of the largest parties shortly after its foundation,” says Louwerse.
Coalition parties D66 and CDA fall far back in the latest Peilingwijzer. Where Sigrid Kaag celebrated another jump to 24 seats with D66 after the elections in 2021, 6 to 10 of these now remain. The CDA (15 seats after the previous parliamentary elections) does not get more than 2 to 6 seats. The ChristenUnie (5 seats in the current Chamber) is stable at 4 to 6 seats.
The BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) ​​is one of the parties most affected by the stormy entrance of NSC. The current 11 to 17 seats in the Peilingwijzer would still mean a gain of about 13 compared to the one seat that Caroline van der Plas now holds. On the other hand, at the end of June in the Peilingwijzer BBB kept pace with the VVD at 23 to 29 seats. That is now almost half less.
In the EenVandaag Opinion Panel, voters from various, mainly right-wing parties have reacted positively to the recent report that former CDA member Mona Keijzer is now eligible for BBB. JA21 voters in particular (2 to 5 seats in the Peilingwijzer) say they feel more attracted to BBB because of this. This also applies to part of the supporters of the Forum for Democracy, PVV, NSC and the SP.
50Plus and Bij1 on no seats
Elsewhere in the House of Representatives, too, a lot could change after the elections on 22 November. The SP, for example, continues to do poorly, at 3 to 5 seats. 50Plus and Bij1, where Sylvana Simons recently announced that she would not be eligible for re-election, do not threaten to return to the House at all.
Forum for Democracy falls back to 2 to 4 seats. BVNL, the party of Wybren van Haga and Henk Krol, does not get a seat at any of the bureaus and is therefore not yet in the Peilingwijzer.
One of the few parties that seems to be making a profit is the Party for the Animals; the party stands at 7 to 10 seats. The SGP is also stable, at 2 to 4 seats. The same applies to Denk, with the same number of seats. Volt comes to 1 to 4 seats.
No more seat poll Kantar
Research agency Kantar has not been conducting seat polls since May last year and has decided not to do so in the election campaign either. This means that the Peilingwijzer now only combines the aforementioned two polls.
According to Louwerse, the consequence of Kantar’s withdrawal is that tentative changes in voter trends are less likely to be determined with certainty. “But with major changes, such as now in the support for NSC and BBB, that is of course possible.”
