‘Negative CBS figures no reason for panic’

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The economic picture is more negative this month than a month ago, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) reports. According to the government organization’s Business Cycle Tracer, our country is performing worse than a month ago. Yet BNR’s house economist Han de Jong is not worried about it.

The Business Cycle Tracer is a combination of thirteen important economic indicators that determine the course of the Dutch economy. This gives an idea of ​​how our country scores in the macroeconomic field. Nevertheless, we should not be blinded by it, says BNR’s house economist Han de Jong. “You have to put this in perspective a little bit. And don’t be too gloomy about the picture that CBS paints here.’

Although February's score is lower than the month before, seven of the thirteen indicators are still outperforming the long-term trend.
Although February’s score is lower than the month before, seven of the thirteen indicators are still outperforming the long-term trend. (Unsplash / Markus Spiske)

Not bad

Although February’s score is lower than the month before, seven of the thirteen indicators are still outperforming the long-term trend. ‘It’s actually not that bad at all. Yes, it was the third month in a row that the value of the Business Cycle Tracer fell slightly. So it is also slightly below the historical average, but that is not very much.’

So what has gotten worse this month? ‘This is mainly due to exports. In the figures of Statistics Netherlands, we have seen for months that world trade has been declining somewhat. We can also explain that, because it probably has to do with China. And if you look ahead, I assume that it will be fine again, because China is open again,’ says De Jong.

‘You shouldn’t be too gloomy about this picture that CBS paints here’

Han de Jong, BNR economist

Consumer confidence

Anyone who takes a look at the Business Cycle Tracer sees that consumer confidence is furthest below the long-term trend. ‘We also know that consumption will remain stable. In fact, it does quite well. I don’t want to explain it away, but you have to put this in perspective a bit.’


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