Large increase in the number of asylum seekers expected in the coming years 19:50 in Politics Sources confirm that behind the scenes the cabinet is discussing that tens of thousands more asylum seekers come to the Netherlands each year than previously thought.

In the coming years many thousands more asylum seekers will travel to the Netherlands than previously thought. The number of asylum seekers expected in 2023 is slightly above 76,000 people according to the highest scenario.

According to a somewhat lower estimate, the influx this year will be around 67,000 people. Even that is much more than the cabinet’s latest forecast. At the end of last year, this was based on 50,650 asylum seekers, excluding Ukrainians.

The Central Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers (COA) may need 100,000 shelter beds in a few years’ time. At the Immigration and Naturalization Service (IND), the increase causes an additional backlog of tens of thousands of asylum files.

Sources around the ministries involved confirm these figures from the Multi-Year Production Prognose (MPP). The MMP is a periodic overview of official forecasts for the organizations in the migration chain, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the judiciary.

The influx of asylum seekers has been systematically underestimated in recent years. As a result, agencies such as the COA and the IND always received too little money. They base the expected workload and the required budget on the estimates of the MMP. It is not yet known which scenario the government is now assuming.

The number of required reception places will increase in all scenarios in the coming years. According to an earlier estimate of the COA, more than 75,000 reception places will be needed by the end of 2023. The higher influx and backlogs in processing asylum applications mean that the shortage of reception places is only increasing.

Crisis situation Ter Apel

Due to staff shortages, the IND can hardly scale up to handle tens of thousands of additional asylum applications per year. New employees are difficult to find and training also takes time. Last year, the agency processed about 30,000 asylum applications.

According to an inventory by the NOS, a crisis situation may arise again this summer at the Ter Apel application center. Twenty asylum seekers went on a hunger strike the day before yesterday in protest against the long waiting times at the IND.

That the discussion about asylum measures will flare up again in the coalition is evident from the reaction of VVD MP Brekelmans to the new figures: