Max Verstappen is likely to be the top favorite for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, after winning dominantly in Bahrain before. Will the Red Bull Racing driver manage to continue that dominance? In F1Maximum Predicts, editors Mitchel Zandee, Stephan Koolschijn and Mark Hanselman discuss the upcoming Grand Prix weekend.
Verstappen expects a stronger Ferrari in Jeddah, do you agree?
Mitchel: ‘It is now known that Charles Leclerc has a grid penalty of ten places, so a podium will be more difficult for him anyway. Of course, that does not alter the fact that Ferrari can be fast. They will be closer, especially in terms of race speed, because tire degradation will be less in Jeddah. Still, I don’t think they can really make it difficult for Red Bull. Of course it can differ per circuit how a car goes there, but the margin the Austrians had in Bahrain was so big that I don’t think Ferrari will make up for that much. In addition, Red Bull had to compromise there in the set-up for qualifying, so they may also have more left over.”
Stephan: ‘Yes, I have that expectation too. The circuit is also referred to as ‘the fastest street circuit’ on the Formula 1 calendar. Top speed is therefore important and Ferrari worked hard on that last winter. In addition, tire wear is not nearly as extreme as in Bahrain. I think Ferrari’s lackluster performance in the season opener is largely due to the high tire degradation, so I expect a more competitive Ferrari in Jeddah. However, gigantic steps are needed to make it really difficult for Red Bull and I do not see this happening. In any case, Leclerc’s grid penalty does not make it any easier.’
Mark: “Absolutely. Ferrari has focused more on top speed this year and has had to sacrifice performance in the slower corners. Where the Italian team performed strongly at the Bahrain International Circuit for years, I think the circuit is less suitable for the SF-23 this year. In Bahrain, braking and traction are decisive and there are hardly any high-speed corners. In Jeddah, top speed is of great importance. During the first Grand Prix, it was Ferrari that had the highest top speed, even higher than the usually fast Red Bull. In addition, the circuit in Bahrain is known for its very high tire degradation. Ferrari performed quite well during qualifying, but dropped back during the race due to high tire wear. This plays a lesser role in Saudi Arabia and that will play into the hands of Leclerc and Carlos Sainz.”
Can Alonso and Aston Martin compete for the podium again?
Mitchel: ‘I wouldn’t know why not. If you saw how easily the Aston Martin changed direction in Bahrain, even at high speed, you can only conclude that the circuit in Saudi Arabia is made for the British. In addition, with Fernando Alonso they have a driver who is not afraid of the devil, so with a competitive car he will certainly go all the way on the circuit where the walls come very close at high speed. Whether it will be enough to put the heat on Red Bull, I can’t say, but I think Ferrari could have a tough job with Alonso in particular.
Stephan: ‘The podium in Bahrain was a great result for Alonso and Aston Martin, but I don’t see them repeating that feat on their own. The Jeddah Corniche Circuit, with its fast corners and straights, does not directly match the characteristics of the AMR23. In addition, Aston Martin was able to benefit from better tire management at the Bahrain International Circuit, which will play a lesser role in Saudi Arabia. With no competition setbacks, I see Alonso finishing behind Red Bull and Ferrari. However, Leclerc’s grid penalty does offer opportunities for Alonso. Sainz didn’t make a convincing impression during the season opener, so maybe the wily Alonso can steal the last podium place from his younger compatriot again, if everything goes well.
Mark: ‘They will fight at the front again, but I think this circuit suits them a bit less than the opening race. You can expect from Red Bull that they can once again fight for the podium with both drivers, leaving only one spot on the podium. Aston Martin’s weakest point at the moment is their top speed, which is where they are the weakest of the top four teams. That will work against them in Saudi Arabia. In addition, I think their lower tire degradation will give them less advantage this weekend, because the track is less tough on the tires and so Ferrari and Mercedes will suffer less. Leclerc’s engine penalty is a big advantage for Alonso in particular, but I still think the Spaniard will just miss out on the podium this weekend. In the longer term I see Aston Martin as a permanent competitor for Red Bull, they have a lot of wind tunnel time and still a lot of potential in their concept.’
What will be the top three in the race and why?
Mitchel: ‘I think Verstappen will have another dominant weekend. The RB19 is so strong that in combination with the Dutchman it will be difficult to beat that machine. Compared to Bahrain, I think Alonso moves up a place in his Aston Martin and is second. Moreover, that would also just be a victory for Formula 1 as a sport if it turns out that he has really been able to find the connection with the top with Aston Martin. Sergio Pérez will have to make do with third, as the Red Bull is the strongest car in the field and although I still don’t have a very high opinion of the Mexican, he does what it takes as second man and can take his second podium of the year.’
Stephan: ‘It may not be as easy as two weeks ago, but the competition will again have a hard time with Verstappen. The reigning world champion is in great shape and if even his engineer can’t keep him in check, who can? Without setbacks, I expect Verstappen to leave Saudi Arabia as the winner, just like a year ago. Behind the Dutchman, I initially counted on an exciting battle for second place between Pérez and an exasperated Leclerc, but after the Monegask’s grid penalty, I expect Pérez to make it another double victory for Red Bull. Sainz falls short on Leclerc in my opinion, but due to the latter’s punishment I expect the Spaniard to be allowed to go to the podium on Sunday.’
Mark: ‘A victory for Verstappen can easily be filled in. With a competitive car, the Dutchman is rarely if ever beaten, so if he doesn’t encounter any crazy things along the way, I believe he will be on his way to another win. Despite his grid penalty, I also expect Leclerc to be on the podium, if his Ferrari stays intact this time. On the circuit in Jeddah you can overtake well if you have a high top speed, and Leclerc already showed last year that it can handle positioning around the DRS lines intelligently. With a good chance of a safety car, I put Leclerc in second place despite his grid penalty, which would just outshine Pérez.’
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