With a growth of 4.5 percent compared to last year, the Chinese economy is back and China seems to have left the consequences of the covid lockdowns behind. ‘That is, of course, a considerable growth,’ says BNR’s house economist Han de Jong, who adds that he thinks it’s great that China can measure its growth so accurately. ‘There are always some doubts about these kinds of figures.’
A growth of 4.5 percent year on year and a growth of 2 percent quarter on quarter. ‘That is actually the growth rate they are aiming for,’ says De Jong. Nevertheless, the recovery is going in fits and starts and the Chinese statistical office writes that the recovery does not yet have a solid foundation due to the complex international situation and the lack of domestic demand. It is not surprising that the Chinese central bank has recently eased monetary policy and that the government also says it will further boost economic growth.
‘Recovery in China mainly benefits Germany, and we are facing that’
Credible
That 4.5 percent is more than economists predicted, is it a credible figure? According to De Jong, estimating Chinese figures is ‘always very difficult’. He thinks it’s great that the Chinese can calculate how fast their economy has grown. ‘They can do that faster than they can in Luxembourg, while Luxembourg probably has a more manageable economy.’
‘Society has of course reopened and the economy is starting again’
More numbers
However, there are more figures that support the growth figure. Export data for March was strong (‘and that may well be true’), retail sales in March were also much better than expected and investment figures were also better than expected. ‘Actually, the only thing that is industrial production.’ And the Chinese real estate sector is also struggling with considerable problems as usual.
The fact that the Chinese economy is doing well has repercussions for the Dutch economy: Germany is the largest economy in Europe and has ‘quite strong interests in exports to China’. Recovery in China therefore mainly benefits Germany, and ‘we have intensive economic relations with Germany’.
