Economists are eyeing China this year now that the country has fully reopened its economy to the outside world. The expectation was that this would give the world economy a significant boost, but Chinese trade figures have been disappointing so far. ‘There is a recovery in activity, but it is not going very smoothly,’ says BNR’s house economist Han de Jong.
Chinese exports rose by more than 8.5 percent in the past month. That is more than economists had expected, who had expected 8 percent. The increase is mainly due to the corona measures that were still in force last year, but which China has now said goodbye to. A month earlier, the increase in exports amounted to no less than 14.8 percent.
Lower prices
What really shocked economists, however, was the fall in the import figure. A fall of 0.2 percent was expected, but China recorded a drop in imports of no less than 7.9 percent in April. As a result, the trade surplus (exports minus imports) increased to more than USD 90 billion. ‘We actually prefer to think in terms of volumes, so the drop in imports may be related to lower prices for imported goods.’
De Jong therefore suspects that China mainly lives on its own supplies. ‘That’s great for China, but for the rest of the world it means that China is not yet giving an impulse to our activity.’ Nevertheless, the house economist expects China to show better figures later this year. “Slow up is a good word, with the emphasis on slow.”
