With only three days of testing before the new Formula 1 season starts, it is more important than ever for the teams to make the most of their time. With technical regulations largely identical to last year as well as budget cap restrictions, most teams opted for further development of their 2022 car, which helped most teams avoid major problems. This article lists the figures for all test kilometers made in the past three days, using data from Formula1.com.
Although the lap times during the test days say little about the pecking order during the first races, there are often early indications about who is well or not well done, and it remains an annual tradition to speculate about the pecking order during the first races. Grand Prix. With only three test days and the first Grand Prix taking place the week after the test days, the teams may have less reason to hold back and more need to push the limit to quickly expose any shortcomings.
Somewhat against tradition, it quickly becomes apparent that the three strongest teams from 2022 can often be found at the top of the table. Red Bull Racing impressed on all three days and finished the test days fastest. Mercedes was less noticeable during the first days, but shows on the last day of testing that they are not far away. Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas are the only drivers of the first seven to set their time on the softest C5 tyre, where Sergio Pérez and both Ferrari drivers, among others, clocked their fastest time with the slightly harder C4 tyre. As expected, Ferrari also participates well, but has not yet shown the same level as Red Bull. It should be said that Charles Leclerc was seven tenths behind Max Verstappen in the 2022 winter tests, but then managed to win the first Grand Prix of the season from pole position. This again indicates that the times of the test days offer no guarantees.
If we look at the fastest lap time per team, which can be found in Table 2, we see that most teams drove their fastest lap on the C4 tyre. Pérez is more than seven tenths faster than Leclerc, although Pérez drove his lap a bit later in the day. Given the minimal difference between Ferrari and traditional midfield teams AlphaTauri, Haas and Aston Martin, you can expect that Ferrari has kept some extras up its sleeve. It is striking that Hamilton is more than three tenths short of Pérez, despite the fact that he drove on the softer C5 tyre. Bottas also jumps above the midfield with his Alfa Romeo, but also does so with the softest tyre. With about half a second difference to Tsunoda, Magnussen and Alonso on the C4 tyres, these teams seem to be close together.
The only two teams that have not even used the C4 tire are McLaren and Alpine. While McLaren has openly expressed its concerns about missing the aerodynamic goals, Alpine seemed quite competitive in the longer stints, so you can expect Alpine in particular to be a lot higher in the rankings next week than they are now. McLaren is also likely to move into the midfield on the same tires as the competition, and has hoped for a major upgrade planned for the fourth race of the season, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Williams seems to be out of tune in a negative sense. The number ten of the constructors’ championship in 2022 is even with the softest tire at the bottom of the time list. It is to be hoped that the situation during the first Grand Prix in Bahrain looks a bit rosier for the team from Grove, otherwise another difficult season threatens.
Alonso and De Vries make a lot of meters
Although lap times are always difficult to analyze during winter testing, making a lot of meters is always good. This year we saw few teams with technical problems, so most teams will have completed most of their testing program.
While Alonso has had many reliability problems with various teams in the past, he will now look back with satisfaction on the many kilometers he has made. Mind you, Alonso is the only driver to have driven two full days of testing, where Drugovich had to make do with just one day and all the other eighteen drivers got one and a half days. Of the drivers who ran a normal schedule, debutants Nyck de Vries and Logan Sargeant were therefore given a lot of time to feel at home in their car. The third debutant, Oscar Piastri, will be jealous of the many meters his fellow debutants have covered. Apart from Drugovich, who therefore had a shorter schedule, both McLaren drivers dangle at the bottom of the list.
If we look at the number of laps as a team, we see McLaren at the bottom, so not exactly a convincing test week for the team from Woking. AlphaTauri, on the other hand, can look back with satisfaction on the number of laps they were able to complete and will probably have been able to complete their test program. At Mercedes, the number of laps was limited by a hydraulic problem that affected George Russell on the second day, and several lengthy adjustments were made to the set-up. Aston Martin saw Felipe Drugovich stall on the first morning with a sensor problem, missing important time to get used to the car ahead of a possible debut next week.
Table 5 shows the number of laps completed per engine supplier. The total number of laps is mainly determined by the number of teams supplied by the engine supplier: four teams run with Mercedes engines, three with Ferrari engines, only two teams with Honda engines, and only Alpine uses the Renault engine . However, if we look at the average number of laps completed per team, it is clear that the Honda engines have been put to work. Mercedes’ average is lowered by McLaren, while Renault collects very little data compared to the other teams – not only have they delivered the fewest engines with Alpine being the only team, they have also completed the lowest number of laps on average.
Predictions for the season
After twenty drivers covered 21,588 kilometers in three days on the Bahrain International Circuit, the necessary data was collected. Based on the collected data and the historical performance of the teams in the first races compared to the winter tests, only Red Bull can be seen as the favourite. Pérez drove by far the most impressive lap of any driver and based on the past two years, Verstappen should be able to go another tenth or three faster. Ferrari is in good shape, but is even less convincing than the current constructors’ champion. In addition, Leclerc indicated that Ferrari has lost something in the corners, which could pose a risk for tire wear in the races.
Mercedes hasn’t been very convincing in the test days, but has rarely if ever shown the back of its tongue during winter testing in recent years, so it should be taken into account that they are closer to the front than the times suggest. In addition, Mercedes has always been very strong in terms of tire management in 2022, and they could therefore possibly be able to beat a stronger qualifying Ferrari in the races. Aston Martin looks to be stepping up to the top and is convincing in the longer stints, but beating one or more of the top teams by value will be a challenge.
Behind these four top teams, Alpine seems to lead the midfield. The French team has perhaps the most conspicuously withheld speed, and seems to exude confidence. Haas, McLaren and Alfa Romeo seem to be close to each other. Haas traditionally performs strongly in Bahrain, but may struggle a bit at other circuits. McLaren, on the other hand, is not yet where it wants to be, but is likely to hit back in the later races, with a major upgrade planned for race four. Alfa Romeo started stronger than it ended in recent years. That leaves AlphaTauri and Williams for the last two places, with AlphaTauri clearly appearing to be the stronger and will be close to the rest of the midfield.
A prediction for the Bahrain Grand Prix:
1.Red Bull
2.Ferrari
3.Mercedes
4.Aston Martin
5. Alpine
6. Hare
7.McLaren
8. Alfa Romeo
9. AlphaTauri
10.Williams
A prediction for the result in the Constructors’ Championship in 2023:
1.Red Bull
2.Mercedes
3.Ferrari
4.Aston Martin
5. Alpine
6.McLaren
7. Hare
8. AlphaTauri
9. Alfa Romeo
10.Williams
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